Decision Workshops

The future of Libya

In July 2011 the rebellion against Gaddafi had been going on since Febuary, but had stalemated.  How would that stalemate be broken?

 

In their most ambitious project to date, Decision Workshops worked with Cranfield University to examine what the future could hold for  Libya, and the moves that could be taken to bring democracy.

 

What would be the fate of Gaddafi ? Who would be in the next government? How could  that government be made more  fully democratic?

The participants

We looked at Gaddafi, the International Community, the National Transitional Council, the Citizens of Tripoli and the Berbers as the main sides in the conflict. We considered the motives and aspirations of all these parties in the conflict, as well as the possibility for in-fighting within parties.

The politics (on 19 July 2011)

The moves

Understanding what the the cards mean

The outputs: Advice at the time

Feedback

LibyaDW2

Because there were a large number of cards, and a highly complex political situation,  we used a different format for the cards in this workshop. Instead of just "Yes", "No" , "No position" and "undeclaired" we also used numbers with values between - 9 and + 9 for the strengths of that position.  This enabled us to successfully capture some of the subtleties and nuances of the situation.

The situation in Libya was highly complex, with a multi-faceted conflict, covering the military, the political and religious domians.  See the way we represented the situation then to the participants, in a numerical confrontation analysis format.  

See what happened in the workshop, and how the future history unfolded as the parties attempted to eliminate their dilemmas

See the findings from the workshop: What advice could the workshop give to help bring the best resolution possible to the war in Libya?  (on July 19th)

What did the participants think of the day?

What are the individual forecasts from the day, and how many of them happened?

The outputs: How well did we forecast ?

Follow on

On the 6th October we held a follow on workshop to look at end game in Libya. See the results of that workshop here:

The results of  this workshop were presented to the house of commons defence select committee on Libya as evidence of the value of role playing workshops using Confrontation Analysis in understanding and forecasting behaviours of parties involved in conflict.

See evidence The participants Understanding the cards The politics The moves The advice Forecasts Feedback Libya - The end game Home